CMA recently assembled a roundtable of its senior leaders – Managing Partners Keith Daniels, Evan Tomaskovic, and Brian Williams – to look back at 2025 and assess key trends that will drive the markets, affect businesses, and influence decision-making in 2026.
The wide-ranging conversation covered the overall health of middle-market businesses, the continued evolution of the private credit environment, drivers of M&A activity, and consumer behavior.
Let’s start by taking a look back at 2025. It seemed to be a year that started slowly, with restructuring activity intensifying in the second half. Would you say that characterization is accurate?
Brian Williams:
In 2025, we finally saw private lenders and financial sponsors take more decisive action to address the implications of post-COVID business model disruption. Things have finally settled down to the point where we know how companies are performing and can assess the sustainability of their business model. We also have a better understanding of what the markets, competitive landscape, and supply chains look like. As a result, lenders that previously might have entered into forbearance agreements have decided to take action.
Keith Daniels:
During the first half of the year, the new administration and tariffs created uncertainty, which put everyone on pause. As that started to sort itself out, we’ve seen a greater willingness to address problems, whether it’s lenders with underperforming companies in their portfolios or PE sponsors who had been “kicking the can” for several years. Now, especially among regulated lenders, we see a greater willingness to step up.
Evan Tomaskovic:
A lot of the problems businesses are facing are longstanding. In a sense, the increase in restructuring activity we are seeing now is as much behavioral as it is economic. Once one or two people are willing to act, it becomes normalized and acceptable for everybody to start reviewing their portfolios.
You mentioned tariffs. How have you seen organizations adapt their supply chains in reaction to tariffs as they have evolved? How much of an issue is it now?
Keith:
I don’t think tariffs have played a part in the increase in restructuring activity that we’ve seen in recent months. The issues sponsors and lenders are attempting to address are more long-term in nature and not directly related to rising trade costs. There are certainly concerns about the potential for tariffs to increase material costs and prices for consumers and businesses, but even some of those tariffs are already being rolled back. For many companies, sourcing has been problematic, but most have adjusted by turning to alternative overseas markets or nearshoring.
Brian:
It’s a reality that everyone has had to deal with, but I have yet to come across a company that blames tariffs for all its problems. Based on the conversations we’ve been having with management teams, the impact hasn’t been nearly as dramatic as many expected.
In light of all of the increase in restructuring and operational activity, what’s your view on dealmaking in the middle market right now?
Brian:
Deal activity is picking up. There are fewer platform investments, but more tuck-ins, add-ons, and sales of business units to strategic investors. One of the things we are very excited about is the opportunity we see to provide an integrated restructuring toolbox that seamlessly combines transactional and operational capabilities, from assessment through operations and transactions, taking the business to market in pieces.
Evan:
We are particularly effective at working with these types of multi-business companies. Sometimes we are brought in as the CRO of the entire organization. We might sell one division in six months and another in a year. The goal is to manage through the entire life cycle. The more complex the business is, the more value we can add for owners and lenders. It doesn’t all have to be done in one step.
Looking ahead, would you say there is momentum now to a point where you’ll start to see more deals closing? What role does the lending environment play in that?
Evan:
During the last quarter of 2025, we saw an increase in inbound calls. Again, we have a bifurcated situation in which some companies are in restructuring mode, but they’re still looking to put capital to work. There is a significant amount of private credit available. If a company is doing well, it can transact in this market, including both life-event-driven deals for pre-institutional companies run by people in their 60s and 70s. There will always be a market for such deals, especially among strategics.
Brian:
There is also a growing level of competition between the private credit players and the regulated banks. Private credit is increasingly targeting term loans, unitranche, and ABL securitization financings that “Main Street” regulated banks have traditionally monopolized. The banks will always have a lower cost of capital, but maybe not by much.
Looking at things through a sector lens, are you seeing any interesting pockets of activity, either in terms of restructuring or deal activity?
Keith:
I work with a lot of consumer businesses, and one of the things I have noticed is an increased appetite for private label goods, including from wealthier consumers, which is the segment of the population driving the economy right now. The lower end of the spectrum continues to be challenged, and tariffs have been a factor there. Companies are mitigating the impact by passing on price increases to consumers, which has led to some upward pricing pressure.
Evan:
There are also demographic issues at play. Empty nesters in their 50s and 60s who, historically, may have been able to start spending their savings, are instead supporting adult children. So even among relatively affluent consumers, you’re seeing a greater willingness to choose the private-label option or purchase from a dollar menu.
What are you looking forward to in the year ahead?
Keith:
We recently changed our name to CMA and redesigned our website to align with the natural evolution of our business and growth trajectory. I’m very excited about the opportunities we see for the years ahead.
Evan:
I agree with Keith, this was a big project for us. The new branding is the result of months of consultation with our most important stakeholders. I would add that while our name and visual identity have evolved, our core values remain unchanged. We remain as committed as ever to acting as a trusted partner for clients that are navigating critical inflection points in their lifecycle.
